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Kuressaare, Saare Maakond, 6 masl

    Table
    Grafiken
    Accuracy
    Compare
    Forecastgraph
    Compare forecastmodels
    EWN puts the forecast-models in a real test by monitoring their accuracy also outside their "home-area" which usually is the country of the issuing meteorologic institute. The accuracy are monitored for ca 900 locations north of the Alps and are calculated by comparing the forecast with the observed temperature every 3 hours at 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18 and 21 UTC. The used forecast for the next day are generated at ca 18 UTC. Theese results are then used for calculating the EWN forecast.
    Models
    - EWN: EWN's own forecast
    - WRFDA: WRF runned by EWN
    - DWD: ICON, DWD, Germany
    - MF: ARPEGE, Meteo France
    - KNMI: Hirlam, KNMI, The Netherlands
    - FMI: Hirlam, FMI, Finland
    - YR: XML-files (AROME-MetCoOp, Hirlam, ECMWF), MET Norway (yr.no)
    - GFS: GFS, NCEP, USA
    - CMC: CMC Ensemble, CMC, Canada
    - WXSIM: WXSIM-software runned by private weatherstations (data not available for all locations)

    Accuracy for Kuressaare

     
    EWN
    FMI
    YR
    --
    DWD
    MF
    KNMI
    GFS
    CMC
    WXSIM
    Good forecasts (±2°)
    Mean error
    Good forecasts (±2°)
    Mean error

    Model accuracy

    The average total accuracy for each forecast-model.
     
    EWN
    FMI
    YR
    --
    DWD
    MF
    KNMI
    GFS
    CMC
    WXSIM
    Good forecasts (±2°)
    Mean error
    Good forecasts (±2°)
    Mean error
    mm
    30+
    25-30
    20-25
    15-20
    10-15
    6-10
    4-6
    2-4
    1-2
    0.5-1
    0.2-0.5
    0.1-0.2
    Schneefall
    Schneeregen
    Hagel
    Frost
    Gewitter
    mm
    50
    30
    22
    14
    9
    7
    5
    4
    3
    2
    1
    0.6
    0.2
    35°
    30°
    25°
    20°
    15°
    10°
    5°
    0°
    -5°
    -10°
    -15°
    -20°
    -25°
    -30°
    -35°
    m/s
    33+
    29
    25
    21
    17
    14
    11
    8
    5
    3
    0
    m/s
    100
    90
    80
    70
    60
    50
    40
    30
    m/s
    50+
    45
    40
    35
    30
    25
    20
    15
    10
    5
    0
    J/kg
    2600
    2400
    2200
    2000
    1800
    1600
    1400
    1200
    1000
    800
    600
    400
    200
    dBZ
    70
    65
    60
    55
    50
    45
    40
    35
    30
    25
    20
    15
    10
    5
    K
    -1
    -2
    -3
    -4
    -5
    -6
    -7
    -8
    -9
    m²/s²
    950
    900
    850
    800
    750
    700
    650
    600
    550
    500
    450
    400
    350
    300
    250
    200
    150
    100
    m/s
    46
    44
    42
    40
    38
    36
    34
    32
    30
    28
    26
    24
    22
    20
    16
    12
    8
    4
    m/s
    30
    28
    26
    24
    22
    20
    18
    16
    14
    12
    10
    8
    6
    4
    2
    3.0
    2.8
    2.6
    2.4
    2.2
    2.0
    1.8
    1.6
    1.4
    1.2
    1.0
    0.8
    0.6
    0.4
    0.2
    15
    14
    13
    12
    11
    10
    9
    8
    7
    6
    5
    4
    3
    2
    1
    %
    90
    80
    70
    60
    50
    40
    30
    20
    10
    cm
    200+
    175-200
    150-175
    125-150
    100-125
    80-100
    60-80
    40-60
    20-40
    10-20
    0-10
    Schneefall
    Schneeregen
    Regen
    mm
    >120
    110
    100
    90
    80
    70
    60
    50
    40
    30
    20
    10
    hPa
    960
    880
    800
    720
    640
    560
    gpdm
    584
    568
    552
    536
    520
    504
    488
    extrem stark Unwetter Blitz Wahrscheinlichkeit
    15% 15% 5% 50% 15%
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